Can you understand whether an artist will be successful or not by evaluating his/her first 5 exhibitions? This scientific study says yes. This is really interesting and actually very similar to advertising. Especially on the creative side…
If you are a runner, we can have a stopwatch and we can measure how fast you run and that will determine whether you are a good runner or a bad runner and the rewards you get from running. The problem with art is that we don’t have a stopwatch.
So how do they determine it? The answer is in the video, but let me summarise briefly for those who don’t have time:
If we want to understand how value really emerges in the art world, we need to map the interdependencies and multiple networks that drive the value of art. They are doing this mapping. The most interesting aspect of these maps is that they allow them to predict artistic success.
At the centre of the network are the most prestigious institutions and museums. If you start your career close to this centre, you have a disproportionate advantage. But how do those outside the centre progress? The study analysed 250 artists.
In the beginning, they exhibited almost everywhere. And through these many random acts of exhibiting, they reached a few key nodes that were better connected and offered them a path to the centre.
In conclusion, talent is only one of the factors in the creative industries. Mobilising the network effect and reaching the right nodes is just as critical as talent.
This study provides a proof by utilising technology.